Category: monetary policy

  • A decentralised solution

    A decentralised solution

    Did you know that there are still more than 700 million people in the world who live in extreme poverty? These people must scrimp, starve, and struggle to survive off less than $1.90 per day.

    By 2030, the World Bank estimates that more than 90 percent of those people will be concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    This is perhaps one of the greatest developmental failures of the modern world. Despite the continent’s expansive natural resources and increasing connectivity, foreign actors still feel it’s too risky to heavily invest in their markets.

    Blockchain could be the key! 

    Bitcoin and “Blockchain” were created in the mass wave of distrust in banks after the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, the technology enables individual, distributed data storage that could become the perfect evidence (trust) base and financial infrastructure for a developing country.

    With the right implementation, Blockchain holds the potential to completely revolutionize and revitalize such economies, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    So, what is this Blockchain?

    Blockchain is essentially a kind of decentralized database that allows you to have a safe, secure way to handle their data without the need for third parties.

    How Blockchain works

    For example, you could with Bitcoin, make or accept payments in real-time without needing a centralized bank.

    “[It is] a way for one Internet user to transfer a unique piece of digital property to another Internet user, such that the transfer is guaranteed to be safe and secure, everyone knows that the transfer has taken place, and nobody can challenge the legitimacy of the transfer,” said software entrepreneur Marc Andreessen.

    “The consequences of this breakthrough are hard to overstate.”

    Historic background

    Until the mid-twentieth century, most of Africa was ruled under a colonial system meant to exploit the people and their natural resources for European benefit. Africans, in addition, were rushed into development according to European standards rather than homegrown ones.

    The legacy of rapid development, distrust and corruption left behind an economic system failing to recover in the 21st century.

    While the World Bank celebrates a decrease in global poverty levels, the number is expected to remain stagnant in Africa. Today’s poorest people are living in places with the least economic growth.

    Sadly enough, poverty and lack of investment in many developing countries stem from how they were integrated into the world system.

    The land was cut into countries according to European treaties and agreements, rather than by traditional and tribal land divisions. This situation worsened upon the handover of colonial power to so-called “democracies.” Power often shifted to the ethnic groups that former colonizers favoured.

    Corruption multiplied in the form of bribes, political persecution, rigged elections, and a massive wealth gap. All of this still affects the wealth distribution and investment potentials of many developing countries.

    Of course, this created a lack of trust in banks and government throughout much of Sub-Saharan Africa.

    The perfect fit for Africa

    During a 2012 study conducted in rural Western Kenya, Stanford University researchers waived the costs of opening basic savings accounts for a number of unbanked individuals.

    While 63 percent of the subjects opened an account, only 18 percent of them used the accounts. This was likely due to three factors: a lack of trust in banks, unreliable service and prohibitive withdrawal fees.

    Unfortunately, the prevalence of unbanked individuals in the informal sectors scares off foreign investors, who heavily rely on transactional evidence to make investments. Otherwise, pouring money into markets is too risky. That’s where Blockchain comes in.

    How would it work?

    Blockchain can host an entire evidence base of transactions, loan repayments, and asset titles. The technology is also decentralized and requires individual confirmation, creating an element of trust and transparency beyond traditional banking systems.

    SmartContracts

    According to Victor Olorunfemi, Director of Products for Pan-African tech and crypto-exchange, KuBitX, Blockchain’s major benefits lie in “frictionless P2P and cross-border payments, transparent elections, land registry management [and] transparent crowdfunding.”

    Let’s look at some of the different ways Blockchain could benefit developing economies, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    1. Creating financial infrastructure and accountability

    According to a study by the Milken Institute, viable financial markets require consistent, accurate data on assets and credit histories. Luckily, Blockchain may fulfil these needs.

    The use of Smart Contracts technology is ideal in areas lacking accountability, such as the real estate or land/agricultural sectors. In Africa, a lack of record-keeping practices often leads to “missing” or non-existent title deeds. In some cases, this is intentional.

    Title deeds “go missing,” only to end up in the hands of benefactors other than the rightful owners. Smart Contracts could eradicate these issues through the use of special tokens that cannot be duplicated, changed or removed. See the article on tokenization.

    Likewise, Bitland, a company in Ghana, currently helps individuals record deeds and land surveys. By resolving land disputes, Bitland creates more stability while accurately recording land asset data.

    “There’s a massive number of people in the informal sector, but there’s not much data being collected on them right now.”

    Merit Webster, co-president of the MIT Sloan Africa Business Club.

    “That means you don’t have that credit history or payment history for them. If you have a decentralized approach to collecting data, you end up with more malleable data. [This] is very valuable for creating credit histories.”
    The agricultural industry also has the potential to thrive using Blockchain.

    “Blockchain could be used to track goods around the world. This allows farmers to earn a fair wage for their goods.”

    Also, farmers could use record-keeping technology to streamline the supply chain and document resources. This would lead to better efficiency, lower transactional costs, and improved logistics.

    2. Security in banking

    According to the World Bank, there were 1.7 billion people with no bank account in 2017. This situation is worst in developing countries, especially African ones. For example, over 62 million of these people lived in Nigeria.

    Besides, data from Google Trends reveal that Lagos, one of Nigeria’s biggest cities, ranks globally as the number one city based on the volume of online searches for Bitcoin (BTC). Clearly, for the city’s 21 million-odd people, there an immense interest in some form of an accessible payment system.

    Of course, it’s unrealistic to expect bank branches to magically appear in every remote corner of the world. However, a digital database using Blockchain technologies has the potential to reach far beyond physical banks.

    Ad: N26 Bank

    Many Africans value trust and transparency. In developing countries, this lack of trust goes beyond the Internet. Developing countries with less industrialization tend to have higher levels of corruption.

    This reduces national investment opportunities in the public sector and instills a lack of trust in centralized oligarchs handling an international investment.

    Because its power lies within the community of users, Blockchain can combat these trust issues. All data logs and amendments must pass through this community and identification confirmation tests.

    Blockchain technology also secures your data incredibly. Hacking and data breaches are all too common nowadays. In 2017, for example, around 3 billion Yahoo user accounts were stolen.

    When information is stored in the same place, hackers have one, easy target. In contrast, Blockchain is a distributed entity. This dissemination of data leaves it far less vulnerable to cyberattacks.

    3. Fostering Entrepreneurship

    Coupled with the Internet, Blockchain technology could be the perfect platform for aspiring African developers. Because the ‘source code’ is free of charge, skilled coders can adapt, create, and configure special applications, called DApps.

    These are available on Crypto platforms and provided by companies like Ethereum, and a South African firm specializing in what they called the Keto-Coin.

    Rather than waiting for governments to drag their feet trying to create jobs—individuals on the continent can form small firms that build and sell Crypto-based Apps locally or abroad.

    “Despite the frictions and impediments mentioned,” said Olorunfemi. “Blockchain can still provide an avenue for promising African tech projects to access capital (FDI) via token offerings on digital assets exchanges.”

    Many courses are even readily available online to quickly learn about new technology. Microsoft, for instance, offers a platform via Azure for you to build and learn about the Blockchain.

    One-man shops in countries with unfavourable economic systems, like Zimbabwe, can also adopt smaller, stable, Cryptocurrencies to facilitate or payments. In cases of rampant inflation, they can temporarily act as a store of value or help you pay for things until your currency stabilizes.

    As with the Venezuelan hyperinflation case study, Cryptocurrency intervention could help many developing countries troubled with economic instability.

    There is also the option of Crypto-mining. But before you pull out the ‘high-consumption energy’ argument – think outside the box for a moment. What about energy sources that are free and available nearly 24/7? Like water and the sun!

    The African continent is full of capable scientists and mechanical engineers. One could build special solar-powered energy centers to power Bitcoin-mining.

    And without the expertise, governments or private companies could alternatively just invite Crypto companies with abundant financial resources to mine (cleanly) for a special tax/fee while creating jobs for the locals.

    4. Elections

    In addition to the financial side of things, Blockchain technology could help eliminate some forms of corruption. For example, many African countries’ elections are incredibly vulnerable to the social scourge. In some extreme cases, some officials change or forge written ballot votes to rig elections.

    Corruption


    To combat this, Blockchain databases could record votes. This makes it nearly impossible to tamper with using Smart Contract technology. Having fair elections improves infrastructure, which then increases development and economic dependability.

    Blockchain non-profit company Cardano, this year, has partnered with the Ethiopian government to battle these issues specifically.

    5. Leapfrogging

    While some might see Africa’s economy as underdeveloped, others might see it as a blank canvas well-suited for a large-scale implementation of Blockchain. Economic and governmental systems are shifting and slightly shaky in many Sub-Saharan African nations.

    MPesa

    The challenge is to foster a rigid economic system to implement Blockchain.

    Don’t just take our word for it—African nations have often implemented new, practical technologies before the Western world. Let’s look at the example of M-Pesa. Back in 2014, Americans and Europeans were amazed by Apple Pay’s launch.

    However, this mobile payment system wasn’t exactly “new.” By that time, Kenyans had used M-Pesa, a very similar technology, for years.

    “There’s a lot of opportunity to leapfrog the way the West developed and have these more unique African solutions, but it needs to come from within,” said Webster.

    “It needs to come from entrepreneurs in the continent who want to implement these solutions. It’s important to engage people very early on. Systems incubated in the West don’t stand as great of a chance to work as African ones do.”

    Concluding remarks

    With the possibility of an experimental, large-scale takeover of Blockchain technology to improve African infrastructure, the nations there could leapfrog in development and growth.

    This must begin internally. According to Olorunfemi, “Education—of policymakers and other stakeholders—which is often ignored has to be a critical factor in paving the way for the acceptance and adoption of new technologies and the accompanying investment.”

    The results in Sub-Saharan African countries could help eliminate much of the world’s poverty. It would also remove remnants of mistrust and corruption left behind by the days of colonial exploitation.

    While there are some obstacles to large-scale Blockchain implementation, we can’t think of a better benefactor than there. The possibilities for business using the Blockchain are endless!

    To learn more about how to get started with Cryptocurrency mining or purchasing, visit our resources page for useful links and guides.


    Additional input by Bobby Quarshie (BQ). 
    Citations: Christopher Lee and Jackson Mueller. 
    Swan, Melanie. “Anticipating the Economic Benefits of Blockchain.” Technology Innovation Management Review 7.10. Oct. 2017.
    Bitcoin Lessons from Venezuela, Where Hyperinflation Reigns. Online Source: https://www.lathropgage.com/newsletter-237.html
  • Nine Reasons Why Globalization Can’t Be Permanent

    Nine Reasons Why Globalization Can’t Be Permanent

    We spoke about globalization in an earlier post on some general terms – citing that it has taken a different shape or evolved. This article below however, delves deeper and highlights on nine reasons why this evolution will be forced to happen.

    It is so well written, it covers all salient points and asks all the right questions – such as what we have pondered on the validity of GDP as a measure of success. The Intelligence Quotient (IQ) has of late been questioned as the main determinant of intelligence in the advent of Emotional Intelligence (EQ) and soon Artificial Intelligence (AI). Likewise, we must question the accuracy in the way the success (or disguised failures) of a nation is presented, and what we are told is required for this success to materialize.

    We especially loved this analogy of the current world situation and if anything is to be taken from this article, this is it:

    bicycle-analogy

    Again kudos to the author Gail Tverberg for this in-depth piece (featured on her website on 31 Jan 2018). In it, Gail touches on issues such as a population growth, a growing wage-disparity, heavy energy consumption, and the demand for cheaper alternative energy:

    Read about the 9 reasons here:   https://wp.me/p3dRG-b4w

    Also read more on how Globalization has evolved here

    Hope you enjoy it as much as we did, and that it has the same effect it had – getting one to think outside the box and look at the big picture.

  • Rare tangible coins

    Rare tangible coins

    With all the talk of digital (altcoins) and Bitcoin, it is hard to even fathom the value or point of holding physical coins.

    They are still nevertheless being minted so it will be quite a while before the clunky things are done away with.
    Some coins, however, though not very publicized, still hold significant value – even as much as Bitcoins!
    It reminds me of a time way back in 2006 while routinely wandering through the pages of a local magazine, I paused at an advertisement that caught my eye.
    An institution dubbed the South African Coin Corporation was offering R100 000 (the present-day equivalent of $8400) for a 5 Rand coin with the face of Nelson Mandela engraved on the back.
    Unable to contain my excitement at the prospect of being a couple of hundred thousand Rands richer, I rang up the number supplied at the bottom of the advert to claim my bounty. I had five of the coins.
    Unfortunately, the coins were worth little more than their intended 5 Rand in value because they were ‘used’.

    Coin dealers

    The company required rare coins that had been untouched and uncirculated. The South African Mint in 2000/2001 minted and encapsulated a few of the 5 Rand Mandela coins and sold them to a few collectors. They are now valuable and had a high demand from overseas collectors.
    The South African Coin Corporation was one of the many coin dealers in the country that dealt exclusively in graded, encapsulated rare (uncommon)South African coins.
    For the past 18 years prior to my visit, the company traded in rare coins ranging from the Veld pond, the 1892 one penny to Krugerrands. All these coins come with (often) dramatic and important historical backgrounds.
    “Roman emperors were printed on their coins and that’s how one could tell who ruled and through which period,” a senior broker and spokesman for the corporation explained.
    “The coins encompass historical periods in time from the Anglo-Boer war to Paul Kruger, and the gold mines – the stories are all in the coins.”
    The coins are graded on an internationally guaranteed system by two recognized American firms namely NGC and PCGS. They work on a grading system ranging from categories such as ‘good’, ‘fine’ and ‘uncirculated’.
    The grading system helps to determine authenticity and originality of the coins – eliminating counterfeits and circulated coins. A ‘proof 70’ coin is basically a flawless coin and is worth a small fortune.
    Lower and medium coins on average collect growth levels of 8% to 15%. Low-grade coins are basically coins that have been in circulation or ‘used’.
    Therefore, a 5 Rand coin obtained from banks and shops (such as the ones I had at the time) are deemed as heavily circulated. Therefore it is only worth the printed value.

    Point of interest

    The industry was briefly brought into the spotlight about a decade ago with the record sale of the single fine ‘proof 69’ Mandela 5 Rand coin. It sold for a whooping 100 000 Rands (worth $13, 300 at the time).
    A senior broker at the Coin Corporation carried out the record sale. “That specific coin was bought by an overseas investor,” he said.
    The near flawless coin according to the company is earmarked to break the $100 000-mark in years to come when it becomes rarer. “And we are yet to see a ‘proof 70’ coin,” he added.
    IMG_1512857432726_1If that sounds impressive you will be further astounded to know that even lower grades of the coin such as the proof 66 5 Rand Mandela cost 735 Rands ($62) in 2006. It then commanded growth of over an astonishing 900%.
    And like our digital friend Bitcoin, it shot up to 8500 Rands ($715) within a year in that year – spurred by speculation and the knowledge of its existence and intrinsic value.
    Some of the lower grades (Proof ‘62s and ‘64s) are now currently worth about $200 – $300 today and can be bought off private investors via online marketplaces. Some banks like this German-based Bank called Netbank offers the option to invest directly in Krugerrands.

    The US market has the largest rare coin markets in the world valued at billions and billions of dollars.

    For those that are looking for something more secure and long term, there is only one trend with this type of investment – and it’s upwards. It does however, take a long time. A lot longer than holding shares/stock or the digital variation.

    Market research is key

    As with any trading instrument, industry experts caution investors about the use of the coins as investment vehicles.
    It is advised that the coins were subjected to various grading tests and you have to ensure that you are getting the right price for the value of  your coins.
    As a potential investor in a coins, you need to have them valued professionally – preferably with any of the accredited coin makers.
    The market for rare coins is also highly subjected to supply and demand factors. There is always a shortage of rare coins with a steady demand from collectors – so naturally, prices are generally always going up albeit slowly.
    External factors (albeit not heavily) can also affect the value of your rare coin. Aspects such as the economic or even political climate of the country can corrode or improve your coin’s value.
    So, just as we advised about researching Cryptocurrency for their intrinsic value, it is key to learn about the coins you plan to invest in. Furthermore, it is of greater value to have a collection of rare coins than just having one or two.
    Many people, for instance, do not know that there are two types of Krugerrands because they look the same. One is mass produced – making it less rare and therefore less valuable.

    Concluding

    The main impetus behind investing in rare coins besides the diversification of your portfolio includes the fact that they add to your personal assets as it is free of capital gains tax.
    It, therefore, serves as collateral or surety for bigger investments.
    There are also perks such as the absence of hidden costs, administration costs and commission deductions – which are paramount ingredients of other forms of investments.
    Once you purchase the coin, it is yours for the keeping – we are still holding on to ours! 😊

  • Globalization 2.0

    Globalization 2.0

    The implementation of globalization has not been without its major flaws. Abolishing it, however, is paramount to anti-socialist behaviour or looking inwards. This concept is against the tendencies of human nature.

    If you read up on any definition of globalization, you will see that the intention was always genuine. The need to integrate and collaborate for the mutual benefit of nations.

    It can, however, like any product (like knowledge), be exploited out of selfish desires and lead to exploitation.

    Of course, it also doesn’t mean that globalization must apply to every sector of your economy.  Some inward investment is always healthy. It should, however, not lead to extreme nationalism for a fear of loss of national identity.

    Trust issues

    The problem, like many others, lies in the hands of politicians who are controlled and dictated to by a handful of large corporations. These ‘corps’ have one and only self-interest – profit, power, and control.

    The main concern for sovereign governments is that ‘giving up’ or sharing one’s technological, innovative, or manufacturing secrets to other countries. The premise is that this would make them ‘vulnerable’.

    The real issue lies in a lack of trust – leading to the notion: “I will not let you know how I do it because you may use it against me – in trade or war”.

    Despite the existence of supposedly ‘compartmentalized’ trading blocs and free trade areas like NAFTA, EU, ECOWAS, SADC, etc, the rate of globalization has sped up significantly in the past decade.

    This is due to boundless advances in information technology as accurately predicted by Neoclassical Growth Theory.

    Information technology has now given us valuable new tools to identify and engage in economic activity.

    Tech provides access to and faster, more informed analysis of information, transfers of assets, and collaboration.

    The impact on finance

    A globalized world means that with the aid of technology, you can buy and sell shares of an Italian firm from a desktop in Namibia!


    You would then only have to deal with the commissions and transaction fees (capital gains tax) locally pertaining to your online trades.

    And think about it, on a micro-level. If globalization is entirely a bad concept then no-one should be using Amazon, eating MacDonalds, or watching Netflix in protest. Hard to imagine, isn’t it?


    We must praise its positive outcomes and work hard against the negative impacts. The negative ones are also giving rise to a new era of extreme nationalism or populism.


    You can only do your bit by promoting and backing policy-makers who can enforce good trade laws.  This would force both local and international competitors to play by the same rules.


    Penalties for financial misconduct should be a lot greater to deter exploitation. Rather, perpetrators still get the proverbial slap on the wrist.


    The creative destruction of the financial system will be brought about by cryptocurrency and its underlying blockchain technology.

    Depending on its uptake, and whether the authorities can legitimize its legality, we may see individuals and governments using decentralized currencies.


    The Venezuelan president is investigating the concept of a national cryptocurrency dubbed ´Petro´. They would use it to alleviate dependency on (heavily interest-ridden) loans.

  • A digital force awakens

    A digital force awakens

    When it comes to providing means of storing, sending, and receiving money, banks and their affiliated institutions, have enjoyed a monopoly for centuries.

    They (especially central banks which allegedly are owned powerful families) have the authority to influence countries and their governments.  We will not go into the level of control as this paves the way for conspiracy theories which though not proven – are not farfetched.


    So, it’s only expected that when some new and unknown entity threatens their prosperity, they start to react.

    Blockchain frenzy

    How banks are responding is evident by how they are fervently building their own blockchains. This, however, defeats the purpose of a having decentralized system.


    Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies get their appeal not just because they are very secure.  But because unlike fiat money, they are not heavily regulated and can be mathematically restricted.


    The 21 million unit limit on Bitcoin by default places it closer to the status of gold (which is also not infinite). But what happens when all are mined in 2041?
    Bitcoin’s current ‘value’ of over $30 000 (adjusted), could move up again, according to the traditional laws of supply and demand as it becomes rare.


    To unlock more value the creators will split it again. The first major splits (forks) gave rise to Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash.  Both cryptocurrencies are racing to newer heights daily.

    How banks operate

    120x600

    Now back to the banks – they make money from our deposits and these deposits are backed up by our reserve banks.
    Reserve banks lend retail banks money which they essentially just print. The banks must ‘turn it’ and pay it back with interest (repo rate).


    So, technically we ‘empower’ banks by depositing our money so they can invest the funds in all sorts of mechanisms. Such mechanisms include the credit and loans to you, your businesses, equities, and property.


    Then, they also invest in high-risk investment vehicles like currency trading, derivatives (futures). They are essentially the biggest regulated and legal Ponzi-schemes. They also make a significant amount of the daily fees they charge you.

    A quick example

    Let’s quickly put things into context. A bank with over a million customers transacting daily. Let’s say they charge you a 10 cent (conservative figure) transaction fee for depositing, withdrawing from another bank, or an intra-bank transfer.


    They then make 0.10c  x 1 000 000 = 100 000 units of the currency on the day. This equates to 1,2 million Euros, Dollars, Rands, or Yen annually. And that is just off your transactional fees!

    Then they also charge you monthly service/maintenance fees. Those are to cover the convenience of you having an account and, for services like online banking.


    This is what cryptocurrencies can potentially wipe away from banks we all go the digital currencies route.  Granted, how you acquire and transfer Cryptocurrencies are not as straightforward as receiving paper money – yet.


    That, coupled with the stigma around ‘Cryptos’, means there is still a barrier to entry for the ‘open-source’ monetary system.


    Banks will try and bring about their own blockchains to address security concerns around making transactions. For them, however, it would still be business as usual when it comes to the charges.

    Birth of Fintech

    Some newer financial institutions, however, are already progressing in the favour of you and me – one such is the European based N26 Bank.


    We often end up paying for things all month without even having to go to an ATM. It works as a traditional bank would, however, allows the (smart) card to be used as a credit card (backed by Mastercard) would.


    This allows you to quickly purchase goods online, book events, flights ticket, and accommodation. Basically, all things you still can’t do with your debit card.

    In countries like Sweden and Estonia, card and digital systems have been a thing for a long time now.


    Some of these Fintechs are adopting or partnering with Cryptos companies to deliver their services. One such as the relationship the one between a German bank and the crypto Ripple.

    Click image to purchase Ripple here

    It would be interesting to see what governments and financial institutions do to ‘protect’ their payment systems. Likewise, it will be equally fascinating to observe how they adapt in general to the new digital era upon us.

  • Elasticity and Sin Tax

    Elasticity and Sin Tax

    We can change our dependence on certain goods and services so that we don’t take too high a knock when their prices fluctuate.

    Life is about making choices. As rational beings, we tend to make choices that benefit our wealth and well-being.


    But some choices have to be made on our behalf — especially when it comes to the provision of commonly used goods and services.

    What is elsaticity?

    The prices of government-regulated products such as fuel, alcohol, and cigarettes are examples. How we react to the price change (whether an increase or decrease) is referred to in economics as elasticity.


    It is a general term for a ratio of change and scientifically attempts to capture your sensitivity to price movements. It is the percentage change in the quantity demanded (or supplied) of something brought about by a percentage change in its price.

    A 10% increase in the price of bread, resulting in a decrease in the quantity demanded by 8%, means your price elasticity of demand for bread is 0,8.

    The ratio is expressed as a number between negative infinity and infinity, with one being the midpoint. The number has no unit — it is not expressed in centimetres, litres or as a percentage.

    45642_1200x628
    120x600


    But that number tells us a great deal. If it is higher than one, the product is said to be elastic. This means the quantity you demand responds strongly to price changes.


    Anything under one is inelastic. This means a price change doesn’t affect your demand for it much.

    When a product is said to be unit elastic, it means the change in quantity demanded is equal to the change in price.

    Practical examples

    On the commercial side, the concept becomes more useful when formulating and studying consumer trends. It is especially beneficial to brand managers who need to set prices for their products while paying attention to sales.


    Income elasticity of demand measures the responsiveness of the quantity of a good to changes to your disposable income.


    Generally, the more inelastic the product, the easier it is for firms to maximize profit by increasing their price.

    Taking advantage of addictions

    If you’ve ever wondered why the prices of your alcohol and cigarettes — commonly referred to as “sin taxes” — always rise, it is because they are inelastic.


    If you were addicted to nicotine, for instance, you would rather cut down on movie tickets to still afford a box of smokes. This makes you inelastic to the increase in cigarette prices.


    Likewise, we industrialize, we become heavily reliant on oil. Our dependence on oil was reiterated in the latest Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) oil outlook, which paints a gloomy picture. The West’s demand for oil is predicted to surpass the available supply in the coming years.


    Globally, over the decade of 1994-2004, about five times more passenger cars appeared on our roads than commercial vehicles. In South Africa, alone, commercial vehicle sales for July were up 13% in the same period.
    Concurrently, increases in lorry volumes worldwide have been observed.


    The more inelastic your product is, the easier it is for you to slap your consumers with high price increases.

    At the time of writing in 2007, the oil price once hovered around $73/barrel and threatened to reach a record high of $80*

    Concluding remarks

    By using other means of energy (oil substitutes, wind, electricity, and solar) we could reduce our reliance on oil. this would make it less inelastic.

    In South Africa, for example, using trains for cargo transport would ease our dependence on petrol and diesel-powered commercial vehicles.

    Carmaker Tesla recently launched its future truck and alleged fastest production car in a big to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. Tesla is gaining steady ground to introduce its electric cars to the world and has surpassed the net worth of Ford.


  • The not-so mysterious world of cryptocurrency

    The not-so mysterious world of cryptocurrency

    Warren Buffett once referred to financial derivatives as “weapons of mass destruction” . He warned that they are detrimental to the global economy and financial markets.

    Cryptos have a way of creating something supposedly of intrinsic value out of nothing. This is as dangerous as propaganda that leads to conflict or promotes struggle.

    They are backed up by a cloud of non-regulatory policies by states who themselves, still traditional monetary policy measures.


    And this is despite their full understanding of the instruments of financial wizardry.

    In economics, the term creative destruction, however, has a paradoxically positive meaning. It is perfectly suited to the new form of “crypto”- currency (Bitcoin) that is not as mystic as it seems.

    A brief history

    Money is a concept that probably also met up with resilience when it was first supposedly introduced by the Chinese. They started carrying folding money during the Tang Dynasty (A.D. 618-907).

    The instability generated by uncontrolled usage and denomination, however, soon led to rapid inflation. This prompted the Chinese to drop it, only for it to be taken up again later when it got stabilized by the adoption and use by the West.

    They developed paper money as an offshoot of the invention of block printing. Block printing is like stamping.

    Ironically that very same term ‘block’ is the foundation behind the Bitcoin – which is generated using blockchains (digital public ledger).

    We won’t get into the mechanics of Bitcoins.  We will, however, attempt to increase awareness on why and how this new payment method could cause positive ripples in the financial global system.

    What is Bitcoin?

    As per Wikipedia, and as simple as it can get in terms of a description: Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency and a digital payment system.

    It was supposedly invented by an unknown programmer, or a group of programmers, under the alias Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009.

    Though the anonymity creates an element of distrust about the agenda of its creators, it is surprisingly more transparent than derivatives.

    Cryptocurrency uses a system of cryptography (encryption) to control the creation of digital ‘coins’ and to verify millions of transactions.

    These transactions include are a basic movement of funds between two digital wallets and get submitted to a public ledger and await confirmation through encryption.

    This video is a great and simple way for you to understand the above because it is best understood when explained as a larger picture. Check out this useful and basic video on Bitcoins.

    That is quite a feat worth acknowledging because 11 years of existence is nothing compared to gold’s multiple century reigns.

    Now 2009 was not long ago considering the Bitcoin is now ‘worth’ well over $20 000 each (updated to 2021 levels).

    For centuries, gold has been our standard of trade or backing of all types of currency until it was ‘uncoupled’ by Nixon in 1971.

    The future of trade and commerce is in the digital sphere – are you in the know?

     Potential currency?

    For something to become the standard measure or mode of trade it, however, needs to be stable. So, while the technology behind Bitcoin (the Blockchain) is relatively sound, its actual price needs to find its firm nesting.

    Established currencies trade on markets via exchange rates with relatively minuscule increments of change in price and value. In comparison, Bitcoin can jump in value by $1000 within (minutes or seconds) – prompting skepticism about its stability.

    Google Engineer Ray Kurzweil, who is revered as a “prophet” for his mysterious predictions, such inconsistency undermines the cryptocurrency’s value as a currency.

    The aim is nevertheless to relieve our dependency on money or more so, the iron grip and often abusive control that some banking institutions have over consumers.

    You could even argue that the recent surge in its price is being fuelled by agents of the traditional banking industry. They naturally feel threatened by the fact that they may not fully understand it and its inherent potential. So they (cash-flush) could inflate it for an inevitable ‘burst’.

    But the currency though very volatile in its movement has remained buoyant. It has now held for well above $10 000 for sustained periods since its inception. Gold is now approx. $1,900.

    Bitcoins provide more guarantee than financial derivatives especially because of their open-source approach to its existence and use.

    Complexity

    The tricky part is simply getting to grips with the vastly abundant information about it and how you could even generate it.

    It is still a great backup ‘of a backup’. We rely on technology and more specifically the Internet for transactions and the associated traffic for our daily lives.

    A simultaneous crash of a few major servers, however, could send it all tumbling back into the digital abyss. But as with money and other forms of currencies, only time will tell.

    Bitcoin will just have to further prove its resilience and stability in the long run.

    Getting attention

    It is certainly not a ‘fly by night’ thing because it has sparked the interests of both public and private institutions globally. China even made a bold move to block the Bitcoin market from trading within its borders at some stage.

    China is notorious for blocking things that stem from the ‘West’ only to later introduce it under their own control to protect their financial sector.

    So, we can be rest assured that the creator is not Chinese! Sweden has allegedly passed legislature to make it an accepted form of currency.

    Currently, banks and governments are frantically creating their own sets of blockchains to ensure they are not caught off-guard.

    Read more about the implications of Cryptocurrency on the financial sector.

    Bitcoin also gets its collective strength (intrinsic value) from its limited quantity in circulation (19 million out of a finite 21 million).

    Spillover effects

    Bitcoin has also paved the way for others such as Ethereum, (mostly used for smart contracts and by developers) which is also seeing good growth.
    Then there is Litecoin, which was formed as part of a controversial yet civil split from the originators of Bitcoin to use ‘variant technologies’.


    All these platforms (companies) now use the blockchain to create all types of cryptocurrencies to capitalize on the spoils of this digital revolution.

    There are also several institutions that are offering late-comers a chance to benefit from the spoils of using and investing in digital currency.

    Naturally, all these schemes with their investment packages would require a ‘buy-in’ and marketing to attract more takers.

    Such Crypto ‘companies’ are likened to a pyramid scheme and subject to many investigations by fiscal and criminal authorities.
    But that is how Bitcoin, its promoters, and the market were initially treated.

    Interested? Check out the following useful links to their official websites to help you get started.
    You can learn more about them, about mining them, or simply buy some Bitcoin here.
    RISK WARNING: YOUR CAPITAL MIGHT BE AT RISK WHEN INVESTING IN CRYPTOCURRENCIES.
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