Tag: economics

Conjecture buying

Before throwing our coins out of the pot or making second guesses about a big crash one must understand how the price of altcoins works.

The price of some altcoins on the trading market has a lot less to do with its intrinsic value. It is actually what individuals, and most traders (who seek only profit), believe it to be worth.

So, what is the reason behind the recent downward price spiral? Not much conspiracy to “ruin the cryptocurrency” other than an expected price correction coupled with some external factors.

Punters including ‘corner shop’ setups inflated the price with rampant price speculation. Speculation based on nothing more than historic (and a short history) rise of the price of the coin from only a few cents to almost $65 000 each (adjusted to 2021 all-time-high price).

The idea of creating an invention that performs a certain function quite soundly and then limiting its supply displays the financial clout of its creator/s.

That way, the natural laws of supply and demand would drive up the price of Bitcoin, as it became rarer though needed. It is already becoming harder to attain (through mining) and as it encroaches its supposed 21-million-unit limit.

“The fact that people keep talking today that bitcoin is below 10,000, it’s a disaster, or bitcoin is above 10,000 and that’s crazy. I think the fact that bitcoin is still alive, and attracting so much attention, is the fact that we’re talking about bitcoin in Davos with a Nobel Prize winner, a central bank governor, and a seasoned investor. I think that’s a powerful tool.” – Jennifer Zhu Scott (Radian Partners principal) – 2018.

External influencers of price

But there are external factors that come into play that affected its speculative price. Factors such as the rise of other altcoins after the split in its technology.

Bear in mind that the blockchain code is open to anyone smart enough to develop and run a product on it.
So, there is also some kind of a substitution effect as newer altcoins become more specific in purpose and faster in executing transactions.

This results in people switching from Bitcoin to the likes of Ethereum-run newcomers like DigixDAO.
These new coins are doing well (if the rising price is an indicator) and climbing while others lose both intrinsic a speculative value.

External factors including market sentiments do in fact play a huge role in determining the demand for the product or service. In the case of Bitcoin, the closing down of some Exchanges in Asia as well as talks of heavier regulation. Such was mentioned at the World Economic Forum in Davos 2018.

Global leaders pledging to take tougher measures to regulate cryptocurrencies raises cause for concern for people with significant amounts invested.

So, the usage by criminals, for instance, has created a much-expected reluctance by governments and financial institutions to accept its legitimacy.
There is also a constant and sometimes subliminal shift in thinking, as trading involves a lot of psychological and emotional play on buying behavior.

Buyer behaviour

One such example is the impulse people have when purchasing items that are supposedly on ‘special’ or at a low price.
A 75% discount on a pair of shoes only tells you that the seller has marked it up so high that they could still make a profit when they knock it down by that much!

You only notices the price (before and after) the discount. This is without realising that it cost the buyer a fraction of both to produce, package it and get it shipped to the store.

The true value of ‘the shoe’ lies in the materials (quality) used to produce it for it to last long or give it its level of comfort (its true purpose). That and its appearance of course.

The “brand name and image” in this case can thus be compared to the speculative aspect of a commodity.
So, a pair of pumps would sell (at a higher than normal price) if the likes of Beyoncé or Gal Gadot are seen wearing them.
The same goes for sportspeople and the whole multi-million dollar/euro endorsement deals they carry. Their endorsement of a product thus ‘legitimizes’ it.

When global leaders, banks, and financial institutions raise concerns about cryptocurrency – it does the very opposite. This sets off-market panic and the selling-off we are currently observing.

The future of Crypto

So, what will happen from here on? Provided it is not outright outlawed. This is, however, proving to be difficult as even the South Korean government have now softened their tough stance on the Crypto Exchanges.
This is after they discovered what a tax ‘gold mine’ Crypto exchanges can be. This is then when the speculative buying will begin again.

Investors who couldn’t purchase Bitcoins at levels above $20 000 will now be seeking an opportunity to enter the market.

Especially if it dips below the $30000 mark (it is currently $34 000). This with the hope to make some decent profit even if it just pushes back to $50 000.
Some will hold on and speculate on a return to previous highs – and so the bullish and bearish cycle continues.

Authorities including the delegates at the Davos talks were in agreement, however, that they will want it at affordable prices. At a level that stays relatively stable, they may even start to consider it as ‘global legal tender’.

But that will be a long time, especially if traders continue to buy it speculatively to make profits.
Those awaiting a total crash of Bitcoin, altcoins, or the blockchain, however, would have to hold their breaths.

The technology is indeed a game-changer and has already been widely adopted. It will only change form to be partially or fully regulated.

The core functions of blockchain-based currency will remain its main contribution to the evolution of banking and ‘money’ transfers.

3 February 2018
Peer-to-peer service

History has taught us that a fully centrally controlled government system fails completely – well, in the long run.

The idea of a communistic system has its merits and could still work in some sectors of our economies. It, however, omits the very thing that was provided to us as human beings – choice.

Knowledge is empowering – but the power to do the things you would like to do effortlessly without fear of error.

This shared knowledge emanates from scientific, biological, or financially proven theories and tests.

They can help you make the right investments. Such as saving money on the best deals, obtaining rights to social benefits, travel to great destinations. Or simply just helping other people achieve their personal and spiritual goals.

Monopolistic behaviour

Those that cling onto knowledge though, serve their interests alone and should not be revered but rather shunned for power-hogging.

Sadly, some governments monopolize access to information, basic services, resources, and even education to create an artificial demand for ´their services’.

This forms the basis of a centrally controlled or outright communistic state.
In business, this is a common practice of a monopoly to control the price of their good or service as they are the only ones providing it.

The quality of that good or service, however, can and will be determined by them and them alone!

Can you imagine then, based on the previous sentence, a situation that only governments have this power to dictate a basic service such as healthcare or education for you?

Scary thought and if you look at most developing countries, the evidence of this is overwhelmingly sad.

But we are not here to talk about the governments as there would be several cases to point out and this is not a political platform.
Case in point, the concept of a centrally controlled system nevertheless is less efficient and prone to failure to disseminate the very items it sets out to provide.

Deploying software by a global firm like IBM, via a centrally stored-located server would be absurd because the infrastructure of the recipient regions or end-users might not be well equipped to handle it.
So one begs to question, why would you do it for social services for instance?

Decentralized systems

Decentralizing a system can improve efficiency because it gives options to get the best quality possible. It also removes power from one or a few providers and shares it equally amongst other stakeholders.

This way all will stand to mutually benefit from a working system indirectly rather than just the state collecting monetary compensation or tax and deciding what to do with it alone.

Centralized systems can learn from the blockchain to efficiently provide services.

Let’s take the now “illegal” peer-to-peer file-sharing and downloading software such as eDonkey/eMule (developed by Microsoft).
Or take BitTorrent for example you could with them, build together any file by downloading “bits” of the file by many connected servers or PCs (peers).

This system leads to faster downloads and allows one to source from the best quality of the available digital bits to get the data to form the e-book, music track, or movie that you were after.

Leaving your download running would enable others to get the files you have already amassed (you reciprocally upload the files). The cycle continues until everyone acquires the same great quality file from the best ‘seeds’.

Downloading from a sole server for the same product, on the contrary, could crash the server.

Let’s not forget the delays due to operational differences in time-zones, or complete failure to download if the file source is corrupted or the file quality is bad.

Application of decentralized systems

Naturally, the entertainment industry put a stop to this because it meant that people could attain their copyrighted material.

Many fines and warnings were dished out to individuals as well as companies hosting the sharing servers.

You can, however, still access them via carefully planned entry gateways to hide your IP address using VPNs. Those of you who are IT experts can use (old-school) backend protocols like FTP.

BitTorrent -> Bitcoin…Torrent -> Tor ..anyone seeing a pattern here?

There is now even a new digital currency designed to help artists curb piracy and reward the artists for their work.
Such protective software is already in the pipeline thanks to blockchain technology.

Decentralizing services such as money transfers in the advent of Cryptomania removes power from regulated financial institutions. They tend to charge high fees for sometimes slow and error-prone services because they can.

Conclusion

So, swiftness and security are a prime reason for the adoption the Blockchain technology. Everything else such as the price of digital alternative coins or ‘altcoins’ boils down to basic supply and demand for it.

Governments and other institutional service providers can take a leaf out of the blockchain technology tree and its true intention.

The aim is to decentralize the provision of a service to give everyone access to it. This will reduce associated costs of using it and improve efficiency!

28 January 2018
An investor state of mind

As an Arsenal Football Club fan, one has the natural tendency to follow the progress of both present and past players of the revered North London title-winning institution.

The prestige of playing for the club comes along with all the bell and whistles required to make life living in the small yet expensive hub city often dubbed to be the centre of modern Europe, a breeze.

It was rather sad to read about the unfortunate fortune of a former player who had a big heart and passion for the beautiful game. He was, however, a bit aloof and care-free on the pitch. It turns out this was a character trait that perhaps extended to his financial affairs.

He was recently reported as sleeping on the couch of a friend without a penny to his name. How can that happen, you might ask?

His weekly wages were a reported 50 000 Great Britain Pounds! So how did he go from earning that figure, to being dead broke?

Such a bad turn of fortune is not uncommon for celebrities, qualified professionals, and lottery winners. This can be explained by a simple lack of ‘investor mentality’.

The right state of mind

This mindset can be instilled in us from a relatively young age if you have had the luxury of growing up with parents, teachers or a mentor who imparts this knowledge to you. It can also be learned later in life – often the hard way.

Similar to starting a business, the biggest barrier to entry into any form of investment is always the initial capital. Once you have it, coupled with the investor mentality, it’s hard to fail financially in life: just ask the current sitting American president!

Now as obvious as this sounds, you need to put in money to make money. That is why investing, for instance, is mainly carried out on a large scale by banks – with your money!

What you do with the money when you inherit it, win it, or save up from a weekly or monthly project-based income is more important than just having it in the first place.

Wouldn’t you agree that money comes then often goes faster than you realize? Having a grasp on why it leaves so fast is what we should be paying attention to.

Let’s firstly be sensible about this – investing is always a long-term project. A desire to reap short-term gains or having such a mentality is paramount to risky gambling or betting against the odds.

“Patience is an investor’s game – if you don’t have any, don’t bother with the mechanisms that don’t lock you in for a few months to enable you to realize a return.”

Enough of the rhetorical questions and statements. Let’s briefly look at a few investment vehicles in the true fashion of Debunqed.

Savings

This is the least risky investing vehicle and tends to suit patient investors. Usually, it is for you if yo are the kind that loves to watch paint dry. 🙂

Your only risk would be using a non-government backed bank for it. The higher the amount you invest, the better the interest rate you get. So this basically benefits the already wealthy. Some savings accounts are even known to offer you 0% or fractional decimal interest rates which are calculated nominally.

So it begs the question – why would you even consider putting your money in savings? Well, using this investment strategy helps with a good credit score. That comes in handy when you apply for loans or obtaining financial backing to start your new business. So they do have some use.
Risk level: Little to none.

Property (residential or commercial)

This is the golden nest egg of investing – that is if you can raise the bond for property or inherit one.

Property is one asset class that tends to only appreciate and relatively well over the years depending on what is happening in the area/town or economy.
Getting in is the difference between having a spender or an investor’s mentality.

What do we mean by this? Well, if you can save up for a deposit to buy a brand-new luxury car, you could and should do the same for a house.

That way each “monthly rent” payment goes towards something you will eventually own. You could also buy-to-rent. The income generated from the tenant (rent) will help you pay off the bond.

Consider the appreciation value of property in your local area over the years. But like anything valuable, you must be prepared to maintain its upkeep – the costs will be more than your weekly carwash.

In the long-run when you realize the greater future value, you could even downgrade to have some extra cash to spend. You could then get that car of your dreams or travel and see the world.
Risk level: Low to moderate.

Share/Stocks

The days of stockbrokers are numbered. Trading firms and hedge fund companies are slowly being replaced by AI computers. These days, you can take full charge of a portfolio of equities, CFDs, Futures, Commodities, Options, Forex and Cryptocurrency directly from your laptop.

There are a number of online trading platforms out there so it is a good idea to go with the accredited ones.

One of the key benefits is that they all offer a free trial – which often gives you a mock .account. That’s a great way to learn about the tools and the above-mentioned markets.

There are aspects you need to pay attention to. One of them is leverage trading . It is essentially borrowing money to trade (payable with interest) – a double whammy if or when things go south for you.
Risk level: High to Excessive.

Mutual funds

As the name suggests it is derived from a pool of funds from a specific institution or industry. Mutual funds are offered by institutions as a supplement to retirement plans (pensions and annuities).

They offer you a return (often a stable monthly or quarterly pay-out) based on a fixed term that you agree on with your portfolio manager.
The offering institution would then apply your pooled monthly contributions into a diverse portfolio to spread your risk exposure.

This, however, requires the attention of a (paid) portfolio manager and is thus susceptible to the principal-agent problem.
Risk level: Low to moderate.

Venture Capitalism/Angel funds

If you have some spare cash and don’t want to bear the risk and burden of running a business yourself, you can fund other people you believe will be successful.

In this arrangement, confidence is placed by you on the owner and the offering. You can then state the terms for the release of your funds such as a quarterly return on investment or a larger stake in the business and its profits.

Rapper Nas is known for his investment in Silicon Valley start-ups as a Venture Capitalist – which gives him a share in the companies he backs with the hope of it growing exponentially to increase that shareholding’s worth.

Celebrities and sports stars usually have the capital to diversify their portfolio by investing in or starting up a new business. One such notable venture was the one where Rapper/Producer Dre’s Beats brand got bought by Apple for three billion USD.
Risk level: Moderate to high.

Rare items

Though not an easy commodity to come by because often the initial value can be quite high (unless of course, you are lucky to find an item at a junk sale or low-key auction), rare commodities can also form part of your future financial security.

Rare coins tend to take a long time to mature in value. Likewise, a painting can appreciate quickly in value if the artist’s “interesting” background comes to light in the press for good or bad reasons.

As an example, a rare Nelson Mandela coin once sold for 100 000 USD while he was still living. So, one can only imagine what the few in circulation are worth now.

Read more about rare coins here.

A rummage around old antique shops and secondhand sales can reap rewards if you know what you’re looking for.
Risk level: Low to moderate.

Bonds

These are long-term interest-bearing certificates issued primarily by governments (via monetary policy) but also by certain large public institutions.

Bonds give you a guarantee of a future value using a specially controlled interest rate. They are usually issued with fixed terms and can only be accessed after 3 to 10 years.

This locks you in, to hold the bond for the agreed period regardless of which way the interest rates are going.

Naturally the higher the rates the better for you. As a cautionary note, you will be subjected to the regulatory activities and monetary policies of the country in which you hold the bonds. Choose where you buy very wisely.
and research your product.

Accessing bond markets is also not easy and you may be subject to complex rules pertaining to the country, residence status and your credit score, and so on.

It is really for the long-term investor and can be used in the same way mutual funds tend to be applied, to supplement one’s retirement annuity package.
Risk level: Moderate to high.

All things investment

You need to remember the importance of imparting this knowledge to our youth, friends, and family so as to continue the cycle.

The simple answer being: Education. The lack of it is one of the fundamental causes of poverty.

A number of celebrities and sports stars have overlooked it’s true importance so as to follow their true passion and skill. This is not necessarily a bad thing. If you have the right people around you to help you manage your finances.

It was reported he signed documents without knowing the full content and liability of what was being presented to him. It was also said that she would even bring paperwork to the football club’s training ground for him to sign.

Let’s be honest, we don’t know the full facts but there is a lesson. This “wife” character could be anyone that you entrust with managing your finances so, be wise as to who you choose to oversee your accounts.

Make a plan

Having a grasp of your assets (if any) less your liabilities is the first place to start. Once you know what you have or don’t have, you can then set goals.
Think about what you need to do to achieve a net worth that will sustain you for the long term.

Granted we all must pay bills. We will write down that part of our income but we need to focus on what is being done with the money that is left once your overheads are met.

Educate yourself (skip a binge session on Netflix). Take a deeper dive into the investment vehicles briefly spoken about. The resources page will provide more comprehensive details about all seven vehicles discussed.

It will also guide you on where to go to find out more once you have decided and which vehicle or combo would fit your investment type and appetite for risk.

Make 2018 a sensible year finance-wise and happy investing!

1 January 2018
Out with the old school…

Creative destruction has become our new favourite buzzword. It also aptly describes this new wave or phenomenon of Crypto-mania driven by the blockchain and its shining star – the Bitcoin.

Suddenly, people who normally would not bat an eye at trading are now asking how to invest in Crypto.

We must note that anything that goes up very abruptly and abnormally – eventually comes tumbling down. The same way the big dot.com bubble burst and left many in dire straits after they over-indulged in overvalued tech companies.

Turbulent history

Bitcoin will eventually find its peak and there will be a mass sell-out and a ‘crash’ at some point.

We even had the likes of an ironical skeptic – the dubious Ponzi-scammer dubbed ‘the Wolf of Wall Street’ Joel Belmont. He attempted to pre-empt a crash of Bitcoin.

The funny thing is, however, most of the critics are people who have not invested themselves. Perhaps they suffer from a case of ‘sour grapes’ or they simply don’t understand how it works to even get involved.

Doubt is prompted by fear of an unknown. Most investors themselves don’t understand the complex algorithms that went into designing the blockchain. However, it is proving to be resilient and gaining intrinsic value by the day.

A new industry borne

Bitcoin (at the time of writing), which was hovering around $17000 after breaking its latest resistance level, and poised to reach the $20000-mark.

Creative destruction does not result in the reinventing of the wheel. It does, however, make the previous version look ancient very quickly. So while Bitcoins may not even last long, it has brought about its add-ons or spill-over effects.

There are now hundreds of cryptocurrencies. While not all and most will not experience huge price surges like that of Bitcoin, Ethereum, or recently Dash, they are still in circulation.

One of the spill-over effect includes the creation of jobs for new entrepreneurs, gamers, and developers across the globe.

Though it might be too late for investors to delve into the above-mentioned ‘big boys of crypto’, institutions are constantly developing blockchain solutions.

The fact of the matter is that the use and process of a blockchain makes sense and will, and is in the process of removing the old currency system.

Now, this may take a while before it completely phases out fiat money. This will also hopefully, much to the delight of governments and fiscal authorities, help eradicate the scourge of counterfeiting.

Applications of blockchain

Think about the big picture, the blockchain technology will allow you or any institution smart enough to copy or modify a part of the anonymously written code. Blockchain is open-source, so anyone smart enough can create their own.

We can now have Crypto for shopping, for buying cars; getting your salary paid by a multi-national company irrespective of where you are based; or paying for using Internet services (IoT).

The latter already exists and is called IOTA – read more about it on the resources page.

This technology can enable one to find creative ways to monetize a cryptocurrency to serve any purpose. This while providing a secure and lightning-quick means to transfer funds.

Litecoin and Dash boast amazing speeds of under 10 seconds to complete international money transfers.

It would be interesting to observe any bank try and beat that without charging an arm and leg for that type of service!

The motor industry

The critics, who thought Elon Musk was crazy for inventing electrically powered battery motors to run engines and now trucks – are now eating their shorts.

Not only did Tesla´s market capitalization beat that of Ford and recently BMW, but it also outperformed petro/diesel-powered vehicle companies. Outdoing them in speed and performance, attractive looks, and practicality – Tesla is changing the motor industry.

Manufacturers like Volvo, Porsche have now rolled out their own hybrids cars. They are looking to go the route of fully electric motors within a short matter of years.

Such notable paradigm shifts in the way we do things embody the beautiful concept of creative destruction. Those that shun it get left behind.
And while it is not all about the monetary gains, you can own the coins to use for transactions rather than for investment.

It will serve you better, in the long run, to get in the know of what is out there.

Beware of scammers

Be wary and vigilant, as like with money and investment, there are sharks out there (offering deals). The aim is to exploit you and many other unknowing technophobes looking to make a quick buck or two from Crypto.

Mining Cryptocurrencies (is particularly conducive for gaming enthusiasts) and using them to benefit you quickly and securely in the way of a new digitized future.

Some Internet pirates in desperation use anonymous digital currency such as Monero. They now use java-scripted mining devices (hidden behind ads) to drain hash power unsuspecting from your web-page browsers.

The way forward

Everyone is trying to get a piece of the action! There are also legitimate paid commission-based add-ons for trading as well – opening up a new world of digital earning online.

Don’t get left behind. But as with any investment, and a caution to the wise: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, and should not substitute any investment portfolio. They should only and always account for a fraction of your overall investment.

13 December 2017
Globalization 2.0

The implementation of globalization has not been without its major flaws. Abolishing it, however, is paramount to anti-socialist behaviour or looking inwards. This concept is against the tendencies of human nature.

If you read up on any definition of globalization, you will see that the intention was always genuine. The need to integrate and collaborate for the mutual benefit of nations.

It can, however, like any product (like knowledge), be exploited out of selfish desires and lead to exploitation.

Of course, it also doesn’t mean that globalization must apply to every sector of your economy. Some inward investment is always healthy. It should, however, not lead to extreme nationalism for a fear of loss of national identity.

Trust issues

The problem, like many others, lies in the hands of politicians who are controlled and dictated to by a handful of large corporations. These ‘corps’ have one and only self-interest – profit, power, and control.

The main concern for sovereign governments is that ‘giving up’ or sharing one’s technological, innovative, or manufacturing secrets to other countries. The premise is that this would make them ‘vulnerable’.

The real issue lies in a lack of trust – leading to the notion: “I will not let you know how I do it because you may use it against me – in trade or war”.

Despite the existence of supposedly ‘compartmentalized’ trading blocs and free trade areas like NAFTA, EU, ECOWAS, SADC, etc, the rate of globalization has sped up significantly in the past decade.

This is due to boundless advances in information technology as accurately predicted by Neoclassical Growth Theory.

Information technology has now given us valuable new tools to identify and engage in economic activity.

Tech provides access to and faster, more informed analysis of information, transfers of assets, and collaboration.

The impact on finance

A globalized world means that with the aid of technology, you can buy and sell shares of an Italian firm from a desktop in Namibia!

You would then only have to deal with the commissions and transaction fees (capital gains tax) locally pertaining to your online trades.

And think about it, on a micro-level. If globalization is entirely a bad concept then no-one should be using Amazon, eating MacDonalds, or watching Netflix in protest. Hard to imagine, isn’t it?

We must praise its positive outcomes and work hard against the negative impacts. The negative ones are also giving rise to a new era of extreme nationalism or populism.

You can only do your bit by promoting and backing policy-makers who can enforce good trade laws. This would force both local and international competitors to play by the same rules.

Penalties for financial misconduct should be a lot greater to deter exploitation. Rather, perpetrators still get the proverbial slap on the wrist.

The creative destruction of the financial system will be brought about by cryptocurrency and its underlying blockchain technology.

Depending on its uptake, and whether the authorities can legitimize its legality, we may see individuals and governments using decentralized currencies.

The Venezuelan president is investigating the concept of a national cryptocurrency dubbed ´Petro´. They would use it to alleviate dependency on (heavily interest-ridden) loans.

10 December 2017
Elasticity and Sin Tax

We can change our dependence on certain goods and services so that we don’t take too high a knock when their prices fluctuate.

Life is about making choices. As rational beings, we tend to make choices that benefit our wealth and well-being.

But some choices have to be made on our behalf — especially when it comes to the provision of commonly used goods and services.

What is elsaticity?

The prices of government-regulated products such as fuel, alcohol, and cigarettes are examples. How we react to the price change (whether an increase or decrease) is referred to in economics as elasticity.

It is a general term for a ratio of change and scientifically attempts to capture your sensitivity to price movements. It is the percentage change in the quantity demanded (or supplied) of something brought about by a percentage change in its price.

A 10% increase in the price of bread, resulting in a decrease in the quantity demanded by 8%, means your price elasticity of demand for bread is 0,8.

The ratio is expressed as a number between negative infinity and infinity, with one being the midpoint. The number has no unit — it is not expressed in centimetres, litres or as a percentage.

But that number tells us a great deal. If it is higher than one, the product is said to be elastic. This means the quantity you demand responds strongly to price changes.

Anything under one is inelastic. This means a price change doesn’t affect your demand for it much.

When a product is said to be unit elastic, it means the change in quantity demanded is equal to the change in price.

Practical examples

On the commercial side, the concept becomes more useful when formulating and studying consumer trends. It is especially beneficial to brand managers who need to set prices for their products while paying attention to sales.

Income elasticity of demand measures the responsiveness of the quantity of a good to changes to your disposable income.

Generally, the more inelastic the product, the easier it is for firms to maximize profit by increasing their price.

Taking advantage of addictions

If you’ve ever wondered why the prices of your alcohol and cigarettes — commonly referred to as “sin taxes” — always rise, it is because they are inelastic.

If you were addicted to nicotine, for instance, you would rather cut down on movie tickets to still afford a box of smokes. This makes you inelastic to the increase in cigarette prices.

Likewise, we industrialize, we become heavily reliant on oil. Our dependence on oil was reiterated in the latest Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) oil outlook, which paints a gloomy picture. The West’s demand for oil is predicted to surpass the available supply in the coming years.

Globally, over the decade of 1994-2004, about five times more passenger cars appeared on our roads than commercial vehicles. In South Africa, alone, commercial vehicle sales for July were up 13% in the same period.
Concurrently, increases in lorry volumes worldwide have been observed.

The more inelastic your product is, the easier it is for you to slap your consumers with high price increases.

At the time of writing in 2007, the oil price once hovered around $73/barrel and threatened to reach a record high of $80*

Concluding remarks

By using other means of energy (oil substitutes, wind, electricity, and solar) we could reduce our reliance on oil. this would make it less inelastic.

In South Africa, for example, using trains for cargo transport would ease our dependence on petrol and diesel-powered commercial vehicles.

Carmaker Tesla recently launched its future truck and alleged fastest production car in a big to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. Tesla is gaining steady ground to introduce its electric cars to the world and has surpassed the net worth of Ford.

18 November 2017
Sustainability – the greatest farce?

We exist not to exist. Now, what does that really mean? Well, in simple terms, it means we are born to die. As grim as this unwanted reality sounds, it is the basis of why people do what they do and behave the way they do.

Some live to enjoy that short moment and blissfully hope it doesn’t come sooner than later. Others strive and prepare for that day with the hope they make an impact and leave a lasting impression.

That lasting impression, in turn, can be for good or bad reasons – often confused by the individual.

Martyrs and suicide committers, for example, tend to feel that their unpleasant actions are doing a great cause to society.

Though their loved ones would beg to differ, it is the individual who decides whether that impact they leave behind is a good or terrible one.

The irrational human mind

One thing one learned in earlier days as undergraduates studying economics was that as individuals, we are mostly self-consumed and irrational.

Some refer to it as being emotional – but all irrational traits to what ideal? After all, that is what separates us from machines and robots!

Living for the present is an inherent human attribute that is hard to change or condition.

We have so quickly moved on to adopt artificial intelligence without mastering our own level of intellect and compassion.

We are certainly not advocating for a utopian state where everyone gets to the level of Albert Einstein. Emotional intelligence, however, unlike the more numerically rigid intelligence quotient, is inherent but can be honed or learned if one is willing.

Difficulty implementing

The problem with its adoption is that it takes effort. This is something not everyone is enthusiastic about – like math, chemistry, or gym class in high school.

One must ponder why significantly less than 10 percent of the world owns all the riches. Meanwhile, we currently still must deal with world hunger, disease, and abject poverty.

We must revisit the above notion of emotional intelligence. This is because one of its inherent traits is compassion – something most of those individuals don’t have or consciously try to avoid. Though this should be one of the obvious attributes that separate us from so-called beasts. Animals only have instincts to help with their decision-making processes. We, on the other hand, still struggle to use them.

Sociopaths, psychopaths, dictators, and oppressors are, therefore, not far from beasts. They lack the compassion that would even amaze the most ruthless animal predator if they had the consciousness to see what was going on in our world. These people also lack what we basically have mythologically termed – a soul.

A greater role to play

This piece is however not to criticize or state the obvious about such people but to try to explain why they behave as they do.
Psychologists and sociologists alike perhaps need to revisit their curricula and amend them to focus more on this very important but often ignored concept.

This should be added in both subject areas but must begin the analysis from the grassroots level – from childhood.
The stigma of seeing a psychologist (clinical, child, or industrial) would first need to be eradicated somehow for this to happen.

These professions play a much larger role in shaping the world that we live in. A lot more than they may realize.

It is when we learn to be compassionate and more emotionally conscious, that the concept of sustainability, conservation of any resource for future generations becomes a reality.

11 November 2017
The not-so mysterious world of cryptocurrency

Warren Buffett once referred to financial derivatives as “weapons of mass destruction” . He warned that they are detrimental to the global economy and financial markets.

Cryptos have a way of creating something supposedly of intrinsic value out of nothing. This is as dangerous as propaganda that leads to conflict or promotes struggle.

They are backed up by a cloud of non-regulatory policies by states who themselves, still traditional monetary policy measures.

And this is despite their full understanding of the instruments of financial wizardry.

In economics, the term creative destruction, however, has a paradoxically positive meaning. It is perfectly suited to the new form of “crypto”- currency (Bitcoin) that is not as mystic as it seems.

A brief history

Money is a concept that probably also met up with resilience when it was first supposedly introduced by the Chinese. They started carrying folding money during the Tang Dynasty (A.D. 618-907).

The instability generated by uncontrolled usage and denomination, however, soon led to rapid inflation. This prompted the Chinese to drop it, only for it to be taken up again later when it got stabilized by the adoption and use by the West.

They developed paper money as an offshoot of the invention of block printing. Block printing is like stamping.

Ironically that very same term ‘block’ is the foundation behind the Bitcoin – which is generated using blockchains (digital public ledger).

We won’t get into the mechanics of Bitcoins. We will, however, attempt to increase awareness on why and how this new payment method could cause positive ripples in the financial global system.

What is Bitcoin?

As per Wikipedia, and as simple as it can get in terms of a description: Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency and a digital payment system.

It was supposedly invented by an unknown programmer, or a group of programmers, under the alias Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009.

Though the anonymity creates an element of distrust about the agenda of its creators, it is surprisingly more transparent than derivatives.

Cryptocurrency uses a system of cryptography (encryption) to control the creation of digital ‘coins’ and to verify millions of transactions.

These transactions include are a basic movement of funds between two digital wallets and get submitted to a public ledger and await confirmation through encryption.

This video is a great and simple way for you to understand the above because it is best understood when explained as a larger picture. Check out this useful and basic video on Bitcoins.

That is quite a feat worth acknowledging because 11 years of existence is nothing compared to gold’s multiple century reigns.

Now 2009 was not long ago considering the Bitcoin is now ‘worth’ well over $20 000 each (updated to 2021 levels).

For centuries, gold has been our standard of trade or backing of all types of currency until it was ‘uncoupled’ by Nixon in 1971.

The future of trade and commerce is in the digital sphere – are you in the know?

Potential currency?

For something to become the standard measure or mode of trade it, however, needs to be stable. So, while the technology behind Bitcoin (the Blockchain) is relatively sound, its actual price needs to find its firm nesting.

Established currencies trade on markets via exchange rates with relatively minuscule increments of change in price and value. In comparison, Bitcoin can jump in value by $1000 within (minutes or seconds) – prompting skepticism about its stability.

Google Engineer Ray Kurzweil, who is revered as a “prophet” for his mysterious predictions, such inconsistency undermines the cryptocurrency’s value as a currency.

The aim is nevertheless to relieve our dependency on money or more so, the iron grip and often abusive control that some banking institutions have over consumers.

You could even argue that the recent surge in its price is being fuelled by agents of the traditional banking industry. They naturally feel threatened by the fact that they may not fully understand it and its inherent potential. So they (cash-flush) could inflate it for an inevitable ‘burst’.

But the currency though very volatile in its movement has remained buoyant. It has now held for well above $10 000 for sustained periods since its inception. Gold is now approx. $1,900.

Bitcoins provide more guarantee than financial derivatives especially because of their open-source approach to its existence and use.

Complexity

The tricky part is simply getting to grips with the vastly abundant information about it and how you could even generate it.

It is still a great backup ‘of a backup’. We rely on technology and more specifically the Internet for transactions and the associated traffic for our daily lives.

A simultaneous crash of a few major servers, however, could send it all tumbling back into the digital abyss. But as with money and other forms of currencies, only time will tell.

Bitcoin will just have to further prove its resilience and stability in the long run.

Getting attention

It is certainly not a ‘fly by night’ thing because it has sparked the interests of both public and private institutions globally. China even made a bold move to block the Bitcoin market from trading within its borders at some stage.

China is notorious for blocking things that stem from the ‘West’ only to later introduce it under their own control to protect their financial sector.

So, we can be rest assured that the creator is not Chinese! Sweden has allegedly passed legislature to make it an accepted form of currency.

Currently, banks and governments are frantically creating their own sets of blockchains to ensure they are not caught off-guard.

Read more about the implications of Cryptocurrency on the financial sector.

Bitcoin also gets its collective strength (intrinsic value) from its limited quantity in circulation (19 million out of a finite 21 million).

Spillover effects

Bitcoin has also paved the way for others such as Ethereum, (mostly used for smart contracts and by developers) which is also seeing good growth.
Then there is Litecoin, which was formed as part of a controversial yet civil split from the originators of Bitcoin to use ‘variant technologies’.

All these platforms (companies) now use the blockchain to create all types of cryptocurrencies to capitalize on the spoils of this digital revolution.

There are also several institutions that are offering late-comers a chance to benefit from the spoils of using and investing in digital currency.

Naturally, all these schemes with their investment packages would require a ‘buy-in’ and marketing to attract more takers.

Such Crypto ‘companies’ are likened to a pyramid scheme and subject to many investigations by fiscal and criminal authorities.
But that is how Bitcoin, its promoters, and the market were initially treated.

Interested? Check out the following useful links to their official websites to help you get started.

You can learn more about them, about mining them, or simply buy some Bitcoin here.

RISK WARNING: YOUR CAPITAL MIGHT BE AT RISK WHEN INVESTING IN CRYPTOCURRENCIES.

7 November 2017

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